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New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, , Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, , Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle
Stocks dropped sharply as investors readjusted rate cut expectations ahead of the latest FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as investors got another dose of inflationary data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. For the Fed, that adds even more restraint on its ability to cut interest rates this year, and futures markets now expect only one rate cut in December. AdvertisementThe equity decline that followed only deepened April's market losses, making it the first month of 2024 to end in the red.
Persons: Stocks, , Bill Adams, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, of Labor Statistics, Comerica Bank Locations: McDonald's, Israel, Here's
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Thursday as Big Tech names Alphabet and Microsoft saw shares rally on strong earnings. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures popped 1.2%. The blue-chip Dow slid 375 points Thursday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 is up 1.6% week to date, on pace to break a three-week losing streak. So far, about 38% of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, and nearly 80% of those beat earnings expectations.
Persons: Dow, Thursday's, Dow Jones, Bill Adams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Big Tech, Microsoft, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Gross, Dow, Comerica Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Monday as investors await a key inflation report that could inform the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both inched up 0.2%. All eyes are on the February reading of the consumer price index, which is set to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. "The CPI index likely ran hot in February on higher gasoline prices, but core inflation likely slowed further as car prices fell and rent increases moderated," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. The technology-led market rally has lost momentum as of late as some of the biggest winners this year continued to retreat.
Persons: Dow Jones, Bill Adams, Tesla, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Fed, Comerica Bank, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft
AdvertisementThat means the strong job numbers of recent months have largely been due to immigrants , specifically foreign-born workers, entering the workforce in large numbers. “Foreign-born labor force participants have accounted for all of the job growth over the last year,” Bill Adams, an economist at Comerica Bank, told The New York Times. AdvertisementAdditionally, he said these job gains haven’t come at the expense of US-born workers either. As of 2022, foreign-born workers were more likely than US-born workers to be in service, natural resources, construction, and maintenance jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of January, 65.7% of foreign-born workers were working or looking for work, compared to 61.4% of US-born workers.
Persons: , ” Bill Adams, Paul Krugman, “ They're, , Louis, Miguel Faria, Castro, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Business, Comerica Bank, New York Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Immigrants, Congressional, Office, St, Louis Fed
Consumers remained largely sanguine about the economy and inflation in February, according to the latest sentiment survey from the University of Michigan released Friday. The February index rose 0.6 points to 79.6 after posting strong gains in the prior two months. The index of consumer expectations, a forecast of how Americans see the economy in the coming months, is now up 21.6% from a year ago. Expectations for inflation did tick up slightly, with the 12-month level now at 3%, up from 2.9% in January. “The upside surprise in the January PPI report echoes the month’s CPI report,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, “ Consumers, Hsu, Jerome Powell’s, Ken Tjonasam, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: University of Michigan, , PPI, Global, CPI, Comerica Bank, “ Labor
Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers tumbled much more than expected in January as cold weather across the United States kept shoppers at home after a robust holiday spending season. Retail sales, which captures spending on all goods and food services, fell 0.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, breaking a two-month streak of increases. Spending declined across various categories last month, including at gas stations and home improvement stores, likely due to the cold weather, falling 1.7% and 4.1%, respectively. January’s Arctic chill also reversed course later in the month in some parts of the country and it’s possible that retail spending could come roaring back in February. “The Fed is likely to look through one month’s weak retail sales report, especially since there is an obvious explanation from a clearly temporary issue,” he said.
Persons: it’s, Bill Adams, , Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank Locations: Washington, United States
The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.
Persons: , BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, , Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, Locations: U.S
What Now for the Economy?
  + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Where does the economy go from here? Consumers are feeling better, expecting that the economy will do well and inflation will subside in the coming 12 months. While the economy ended last year on a strong note, the expectation was that it would cool down as the calendar turned to 2024. Last week, the International Monetary Fund boosted its projection for global growth to 3.1% from its October estimate of 2.9%, citing “greater-than-expected resilience” in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast has the U.S economy growing at a 4.2% clip in the first quarter.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, , That’s Organizations: Federal, Labor Department, ” Comerica Bank, Fed, CBS, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Santander Bank, Locations: U.S, ” Santander
Official figures show that growth is solid, jobs are plentiful and wages are climbing, and yet voters are mostly feeling down and giving President Biden little credit. Friday’s jobs data is adding to that split-screen view, with economists pointing out red flags in an otherwise sterling report. Employers added 353,000 jobs last month, almost double economists’ forecasts, and an additional 100,000 via revisions in previous months. Average hourly wages rose, too. For a start, wintry weather shrank the average workweek to 34.1 hours in January.
Persons: Biden, Bill Adams Organizations: Employers, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S
The latest S&P Case-Shiller national home price index data published Tuesday — which offers the three-month average for September, October, and November closing prices — showed a moderate slowdown in price gains. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months." However, each saw annual gains of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. The biggest annual price gains came in Detroit and San Diego, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."
Persons: , Brian D, Luke, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: Detroit, San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, Portland
Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.
Persons: , Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, , Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan
Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."
Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
That’s the lowest annual increase registered since June 2021 and a far cry from the 11.8% increase registered in December 2022. Overall food prices were up 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the rate of increase seen in November, CPI data shows. Eggs and ham prices went up the most in December as compared to other food categories tracked in the CPI. Ham prices rose 2.6% for the month (2.9% excluding canned ham), BLS data showed. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that grocery prices rose only 1.3% for the year ended in December.
Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Adams, chow, Wendy Edelberg, Ash Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Comerica Bank, CPI, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Ham, United States
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%. Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. I'm hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down."
Persons: Dow Jones, Stocks, Bonds, Bill Adams, John Williams, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Energy, Dow Jones, Treasury, Labor, Fed, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, . New York Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, European Central Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: ., New York
Back in June 2022, big banks approved 15.4% of small business loan applications. All those factors have added up to a grim environment if you’re a small business seeking a loan. Without two years of tax returns, however, she didn’t qualify for many small business loans. Online lenders were quick to offer their services, but the terms were too strict, requiring weekly repayments or interest rates up to 40%. “For a small business that is not only intimidating, it’s almost impossible," she said.
Persons: Banks, Cheyenne Smith, Smith, , Shantell Chambliss, Chambliss, , she’s, Nate Hodge, He’s, Hodge, “ It’s, ” Jen Rose, Rose Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Federation of Independent Business, Bee, Comerica Bank, Comerica Locations: Salt Lake City , Utah, Dakota, Richmond , Va, Capital, Dallas , Texas
Zillow said 30% of rental listings offer some sort of concession to prospective renters. AdvertisementMore rental listings are offering sweetened deals, as an influx in freshly constructed properties gives prospective tenants more options. Zillow said 30% of rental listings now offer at least one concession, up from 24% a year ago. Construction activity has continued through October, with 408,000 multi-family units added, according to new Census Bureau data on Friday. Multifamily units under construction in October were only down 1% from July's record high, and up by half from late 2019.
Persons: Zillow, , Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Comerica Bank Locations: Phoenix, Atlanta
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 970,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Overall housing starts rose 1.9% to a rate of 1.372 million units in October. The number of housing under construction dipped 0.1% to a rate of 1.674 million units. The inventory of single-family housing under construction declined 0.6% to a rate of 669,000 units, the lowest level since May 2021. The stock of multi-family housing under construction edged up 0.1% to 987,000 units, not far from recent record highs.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Ben Ayers, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams, Thomas Ryan, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, LPL Financial, Commerce, Data, National Association of Home Builders, Nationwide, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Realtors, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Charlotte , North Carolina, homebuilding, Commerce Department's, Northeast, Columbus , Ohio, Dallas, West, South, Midwest
High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would fall 0.3%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. Data for September was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.7% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP. Goods prices rose 0.8% in September.
Persons: Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Saks Fifth, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal, Comerica Bank, Commerce, Data, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Consumer, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wednesday, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Commerce Department's
Compared with 12 months ago, consumer prices rose 3.2% in October, down from the 3.7% rise in September and the smallest year-over-year increase since June. Measured year over year, core prices rose 4% in October, down from 4.1% in September, the smallest rise in two years. They have continued to fall into November, suggesting that cheaper energy could hold down inflation this month as well. Political Cartoons View All 1244 ImagesGrocery store prices rose 0.3% last month and 2.1% from a year earlier. Even with the smaller increase, rental and housing costs accounted for two-thirds of the increase in core inflation compared with a year ago.
Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, , Adams, , Eric Winograd Organizations: WASHINGTON, Labor Department, Comerica Bank ., Fed, Dow, AB Global Locations: United States
US stocks saw an impressive rally as the latest CPI data surprised investors with an inflation slowdown. Bond yields dropped dramatically, with the 10-year rate plummeting over 19 basis points. AdvertisementUS stocks shot up on Tuesday, as markets rallied around October's Consumer Price Index report, which surprised investors with softer-than-predicted inflation data. Since the CPI report, market expectations of rate hike in December dropped from 14% to 0%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementAccording to October's report, prices remained flat on a monthly basis, despite expectations of a 0.1% rise.
Persons: Bond, , That's, Bill Adams, Jamie Cox Organizations: Service, October's, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Comerica Bank, Treasury, Harris Financial, Here's Locations: United States
The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.
Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, , Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, , Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington
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